Not counting the additional 2 senators to be nominated by the National Assembly and the 2 others to be nominated by His Majesty the King in virtue of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Cambodia the projected number of 46 senate seats going to the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and 11 senate seats going to the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) are indicative that the CPP will dominate the third senate mandate overwhelmingly. Apparently, the National Assembly will likely nominate 2 CPP senators, giving the CPP 48 seats. For the benefit of the doubt, the 2 senators to be nominated by His Majesty the King are independent. Regardless how anyone, in particular the SRP looks at it, the CPP is the clear winner with a little more than 81% of the seats go to CPP and slightly less than 19% go to the SRP.
Counting
the number of votes, 100% of CPP members of the Commune Council and members of
the National Assembly voted for the CPP plus 797 votes from non-CPP members,
and among them 179 votes came from the SRP. Despite those 179 votes are “dead
leaves falling from a growing tree,” as shamelessly claimed by the SRP, the
facts remained that the SRP had lost 179 core members and leaders. This is
indisputable. It reflects a dreadful cleavage in the rank-and-file of the SRP. Fair-minded
international political analysts and Cambodian political parties’ observers
attributed this “SRP tsunami” to a number of fundamental problems inside and
outside of the SRP, which can be summarized as follows:
Inside SRP
·
The main problem has been caused by Sam
Rainsy himself. His erratic behaviour, his chauvinism, his ultra-extremist
political philosophy, his unabated revengeful heart, and his state of mind of
the late 90’s ring loud in all his activities leading to his present status
that is a convicted fugitive in the Cambodian court of law.
·
Second, there has not been a fair and
mutually respected connectivity between the SRP “national leaders” and the
leaders at the grass-root level.
·
Third, for almost the end of the fourth
mandate of the National Assembly, the few and rare opportunities presented to
the SRP were particularly divided up among the “national leaders.”
·
Fourth, it is the lack of direction due
to the absence of a well defined ideology and action plans, and a collective
decision making process. The party moves and changes the direction on the
marching order from Sam Rainsy. The effect is tantamount to pushing out good
patriots and law-abiding citizens away from the SRP.
·
Fifth, there is no understanding of the
process called “conflict resolution,” thinking that within the SRP there is “no
conflict”. It is rather a dictatorial rule that “party members must follow the
flag-bearer”.
Outside the SRP
·
The CPP, as a united party, is a huge challenge
for the SRP.
·
Four CPP governments during four CPP
dominated National Assembly mandates brought and continue to bring internal
stability, socio-economic development, growth, progress, better life for the
people from top to bottom, harmony across the spectrum of activities of the
government and the people, and national prestige on the international arena.
·
Under the CPP governments, and
especially the last 2 governments, not a single Cambodian is starved to death
because he or she does not have foods.
·
Natural calamities have been handled
with satisfaction and praise.
·
Young people and their parents know that
they have good futures under the leadership of the CPP.
Without
making fancy comment and trying to justify the unjustifiable, it is a consensus
that there will be more and more mass-defection on the side of the SRP, and
there will be more and more increasing in numbers of SRP former core members
and SRP former active members on the side of the CPP. The immediate challenge
to the SRP, and this is undeniably a dilemma for the SRP, is to weed out the
179 core members who jumped ship recently, and to pick up new “hard core” SRP
members to field the June 2012 Commune Council members election. In effect,
this will further deteriorate and divide the SRP.
3 February 2012
Prof. Pen Ngoeun
Member of the Press and Quick Reaction
Unit (PRU)
Office of the Council of Ministers (OCM)
Advisor to the University of
Puthisastra, Phnom Penh